Can this Momentum Continue?
By TradingAnalysis January 7th, 2020
Yes, the new year is here, and with it comes many potential market catalysts that can significantly impact the direction of the US equity markets. The on-going trade negotiations between the United States and China (January 13th we sign phase one, buy the rumor sell the news event?), and of course the 2020 Presidential Elections. We’ve discussed it before, and still believe we will be transitioning from a trade-headline-tweet driven market, to a poll driven market in 2020, and especially as we get closer to election season. All things considered, it’s should certainly be an exciting year for both traders and investors! So, stay tuned, buckle up and get ready for some volatility!
Interested in learning more about where we see the markets from a technical point of view? Tune in below for an extended market video update where we walk you through two very different yet valid scenarios for the US equity markets.
Although we’ve achieved our desired upside objective in the S&P 500, regardless of the higher degree trend implications both counts imply we ultimately resolve higher. As we’ve discussed previously, we need to be watching the price action that develops very closely once this initial 5-wave motive impulsive advance comes to completion. With that in mind, the next 3-4 weeks of trading should solidify and confirm the direction of the US equity markets for the next 3-4 months! Thanks for tuning in, and we hope to see you all every Wednesday morning at 8:45 AM Eastern on Todd Gordon’s YouTube Channel for our Elliott Wave Wednesday Livestream!
Like your crisp style Bennet. Generally excellent analysis and I like that you keep your “teaching moments” crisp too. Technicals strongly favor the bullish count (as in massively strongly). The cycle 2 low must be placed at the “cycle low event” in Dec of 2018. Why? The flat model for the cycle 2 is forced, and your logic for it vs. a nominal 1-2-1-2 cycle-primary count doesn’t pan out: it is not uncommon for a lower degree correction to be larger in percentage terms than a higher, and you know that. Wave structure isn’t always (or even usually!) clean and pretty like that. Ellioticians with 15 years of daily real-time SPX analysis are calling that a 1-2-1-2. And then there’s the fact that a flat model there strongly suggests the cycle 4 low event in Dec 2018 was only the start of a cycle 4, per your bearish model…except all the price action since is very strongly bullish and impulsive, and there’s just about zero additional reason to believe it’s a continuation of the massive wave down into Dec of 2018. Casting more doubt on that model. So I’d argue a really integrated assessment would lead to the highest probability model being a 1-2-1-2 (cycle then primary) back then, and a cycle 4 complete Dec 2018, and everything since cycle V motive wave action. With your bearish model a very distant possibility. Well, my $0.02, for what it is worth (probably less), again I really appreciate the quick overall review of the markets and their state.
Hi Bennett
Watched your video of can this momentum continue.
I appreciate you guys giving the amount of analysis on the spx in the free video, I’m thankful to receive that. If I wanted to sign up to get more analysis on SPX, what would the cost of that be. I’m wanting to get as much analysis on the s&p as I can. I’m interested in trading this upcoming bear market and the video you did is the kind of information I’m interested in.
Thanks again!
Greg: since you say “as much analysis as I can”, I’ll suggest in addition to these guy’s fine analysis the work of Lara Iriarte at http://www.elliottwavestockmarket.com. She’s been doing daily EW analysis of the SP500 for 15 years, totally objective and the support of comprehensive technical analysis. Worth checking out IMO. She strictly provides EW analysis, not any trading advice whatsoever.
Hi Greg,
You can get your hands on a TA Premiere subscription that covers stocks and indices for $177 per month. You can get a trial to test drive it too, on the page below:
https://tradinganalysis.com/services/
Bennett (and all), you may want to consider an alternate count of the run up from the 10/3/19 low that puts the minute i complete at the start of the 11/27 – 12/3 correction, which was then the minute ii, and everything since is the minute iii (still continuing, and probably in a subminuette v of a minuette v, and hence getting very close to initiating a minute iv down). It’s a more bullish model, it’s valid and has reasonable probability. The immediate difference would be obviously that we are looking for a minute iv then minute v up to new highs here over the next few weeks, while the current model has price initiating a minor wave down (2 in your count; 4 in my count, but viva-la-differance!).
Sorry…SPX of course.
Excellent stuff. I can not describe how much your blog has helped me in my academic research on the subject. I am now going to get top marks for sure. Thanks a million. I owe you one.