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Member’s Video for Friday, September 29th, 2017
We’re carrying our SPY fly into expiration today and will be watching the 250 level carefully as gamma will be all over the board. Our longer-term SPX fly is going fine as the NASDAQ and S&P are mostly sideways, but what about the Russell? Materials, energy, and financials continue to be the leaders here.
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Is there a possibility to have the videos released the night prior vs at the open?
AB -90% of the time they are released at night, but if my schedule is hectic (like recently) then sometimes they are posted the next morning. You’ve been a member long enough – you know how I roll. I make every effort possible to get them out at night, but sometimes they just have to be in the morning.
Hi Todd,
Based on this SPY analysis, you believe we’re done with wave (4) correction in mid-August and have started the wave 5 ascend already?
Doesn’t wave 4 look too shallow in terms of both price and time comparing to 3?
I thought you looked at the possibility it’s a wave B and then some sort of a triangle in wave C?
Could you clarify please?
Thanks,
Sean
Hi Sean,
You are completely correct. If W’blue (4)’ did in fact complete on August 21st, that would leave a shallow correction in terms of duration. However, the guideline of alternation states that if the first correction in a motive wave is short, sharp, and directional the next should be long, choppy, and drawn out. But keep in mind it’s like the pirate’s code in the Pirates of the Carribean; it’s more like guidelines than a code.
So if you take a step back and look at this S&P 500 Daily It doesn’t seem that bad. Also, keep in mind that blue (1) was longer than blue (3), so blue (5) must complete below 2592 to be valid.
Back to the original count that calls this rally B-wave of a longer-term triangle, I’m still watching it but we need a sharp reversal sooner rather than later so I’m becoming less confident in that wave count. I will continue the discussion in the video for Monday.