Member’s Video for Wednesday, February 28th, 2018

Jerome Powell speaks and says we’re still a go for 3 hikes and stocks sell off. We are moving into the SPX butterflies to take advantage of downside C-wave within a larger correction that lasts through H1 of 2018.

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5 Comments

  1. Mo Naim

    Some of you guys are curious to have IV% on their chart. Here is the script…
    Go to studies, create a study and name it IV and then copy paste this script in there and saved it. You should be able to see it on the chart right away….Thanks Mo

    declare upper;
    input NumberOfWeeks = 52; #HINT NumberOfWeeks: 52= 1-year; 39= 9-months; 26= 6-months; 13= 3-months
    def IV = if !IsNaN(imp_volatility(period = AggregationPeriod.DAY))
    then imp_volatility(period = AggregationPeriod.DAY)
    else IV[1];
    ;
    def timePeriod = NumberOfWeeks * 4.85; #NOTE: 4.85 is used instead of 5 to account for market holiday weeks
    def hi = Highest(IV, timePeriod);
    def lo = Lowest(IV, timePeriod);
    def perct = (IV – lo) * 100 / (hi – lo);
    # end code ————-
    # HINT: This IV percentile is NOT a 0 – 100 rank of where current IV is located within the 52-week high/low range for ImpVolatility. Instead this IV percentile compares 52-weeks of ImpVolatility data to determine where current IV is located relative to “normal” ImpVolatility.
    # Many times IV percentile rank will be same or similar to IV percentile, however, if there has been a spike high or spike low in the ImpVolatility high/low range that spike(s) can skew IV percentile rank causing current IV to appear lower or higher than actual realtive to “normal” IV
    def TradingDays = if NumberOfWeeks == 52 then 252 else if NumberOfWeeks == 39 then 189 else if NumberOfWeeks == 26 then 126 else 63;
    def IVperc = fold i = 0 to TradingDays
    with p = 0
    do if IV 60
    then Color.green
    else if IVpercentile < 40
    then Color.red
    else Color.LIGHT_GRAY);

    Reply
  2. NL

    Hi Todd ,

    Even if the all time high is NOT in on the Spx and RUT , and assuming this is a big wave 4 correction , I still count the move down from end jan to early feb , as a 5 wave down impulse, rather than a 3 wave down, suggesting a zig zag
    For both the Spx and RUT.
    ( neither of them have broken the 78.6% fib resistance ).

    What is it , about the move down on the charts, that suggests a 3 wave down is more likely , than a 5 wave down, on both these 2 index’s.?

    Reply
  3. Konrad Brandemuhl

    3 Cuts? Didn’t you mean 3 hikes.

    Reply
    • Todd Gordon

      Sorry, yes, 3 hikes.

      Reply
  4. THOMAS SHARKEY

    Is there any more documentation on the Repository? I am getting updates that folders are being added to and changed but dont see any changes?

    Reply

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